Dublin Draws Outside Post For Southwest






Dublin
, winner of the Three Chimneys Hopeful (gr. I) as a juvenile, drew post 10 for his 3-year-old debut and will take on a solid group of rivals that includes three California shippers in the $250,000 Southwest Stakes (gr. III) Feb. 15 at Oaklawn Park.
Trainer D. Wayne Lukas, a four-time Kentucky Derby (gr. I) winner, has said that Dublin gives him his best chance at taking the roses in several years and the son of
Afleet Alex
will take his first step toward that goal against a field of nine. The one-mile Southwest is the first of three key 3-year-old graded preps at Oaklawn, with the $300,000 Rebel (gr. II) on March 13 and $1 million Arkansas Derby (gr. I) on April 10 to follow. Dublin turned in a pair of dull efforts after his Hopeful victory at Saratoga last summer, finishing fifth in Belmont Park’s Champagne (gr. I) and seventh in Churchill Downs’ Iroquois (gr. III), but Lukas said the chestnut colt was hampered by an entrapped epiglottis, a problem which he had surgery to correct at the end of the year. He has turned in several sharp works at Oaklawn in preparation for the Southwest. Bred in Kentucky by Peter Blum and Gerry Dilger, Dublin is out of the Storm Bird mare Classy Mirage. He was a $525,000 Keeneland September 2008 yearling purchase for Robert Baker and William Mack. Lukas has assigned Terry Thompson to ride Dublin for the first time. “He's 100% now," Lukas said. “He's a whole different horse now. He was probably only getting 60 or 70% of his air before (the surgery). I wouldn’t trade places with anyone.” Among Dublin’s chief rivals are a trio of horses invading from California—
Conveyance
,
Cardiff Giant
, and
Domonation
—the one-two-three finishers of the San Rafael Stakes (gr. III) Jan. 16 at Santa Anita. All of them will be making their first starts on dirt. Zabeel Racing International’s Conveyance is undefeated in three lifetime starts for Bob Baffert, including his impressive 1 3/4-length score in the San Rafael, with Cardiff Giant outfinishing Domonation by three parts of a length for runner-up. A son of Indian Charlie, Conveyance has flashed devastating early speed in all three of starts and is expected to be near the front end once again in the Southwest with Eclipse Award-winning rider Garrett Gomez flying in from California for the mount. They will break from post 2 while carrying 122 pounds. M Racing’s Cardiff Giant, who was claimed for $32,000 as a juvenile, has already started 10 times with a 2-5-2 record to show for his efforts. Joy Ride Racing and La Cresta Farm’s Domonation also has a runner-up finish in the Stuka Stakes at Hollywood Park in December on his resume. Charles Stella’s
Dryfly
went wire-to-wire in the Smarty Jones Stakes over the same Oaklawn ground on Jan. 18 in his 2 1/4-length score. The Jump Start gelding has won three of four starts overall for trainer Lynn Whiting and will keep regular rider Calvin Borel for the Southwest. He will also carry top weight of 122 pounds. Twin Creeks racing Stables’
Mission Impazible
broke his maiden at first asking last fall at Keeneland, then ran third in the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill. He was beaten only a head in his sophomore debut Jan. 9 at Gulfstream Park over a sloppy track in allowance company. John Velazquez will have the call for Todd Pletcher.
$250,000 Southwest Stakes (gr. III, Race 9, 5:02 p.m.), 3YO, 1 Mile (Dirt)
PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer
1. Kitty's Turn (KY), R Albarado, 115, G A Thomas
2. Conveyance (KY), G K Gomez, 122, B Baffert
3. Cardiff Giant (KY), C Santiago Reyes, 115, J Periban
4. Mission Impazible (KY), J R Velazquez, 115, T A Pletcher
5. Domonation (KY), C S Nakatani, 115, J W Sadler
6. Dryfly (KY), C H Borel, 122, L S Whiting
7. Crider (FL), L S Quinonez, 115, S M Asmussen
8. Cool Bullet (FL), B J Hernandez Jr., 117, S Margolis
9. Pleasant Storm (OK), L B McNeil, 117, J Petalino
10. Dublin (KY), T J Thompson, 117, D W Lukas

conveyance for me in this one

You could be right but I think imma listen to the old guy, Dublin for me.

Only issue I have with Dublin is his altered work schedule due to the snow, I believe they worked him on Thursday, got a nice 1/2 mile work into him, just maintenance im sure to keep him a bit on edge. If Lukas is correct he should be very hard to beat in this one, and going forward.

1) Dublin
2) Pleasant Storm
3) Cool Bullet
4) Domonation

Box it!

That's a stone cold exacta baby.

I might pass on the Southwest, evne though I'll be at the track soon. I feel that even if Dublin wins, it's kinda a sucker's bet.

FWIW, I remember Old Fashioned taking this last year, it was awfully fast because Silver City was running. Dublin can run those kind of splits, but OTOH, there's only a 4% improvement or something on horses coming back from that throat surgery stuff. And I think Cool Bullet will be hurt here due to all the early speed in the race.
I'm a stickler about playing horses to do something they never did, ie run on surfaces they haven't run on, or at distances they haven't been ITM at but that is more my rules for KY Derby and not regular races.

I'm gonna find a nice longshot . 9 and 4 are my lucky combos, might just play that LOL LOL I might do somthing weird like play 9,4 w/ 6,10

Dryfly
Conveyance
Dublin
Mission Impazible

Sorry Charlie or should I say Afleetalexforever ,


You are picking a horse with your heart and not reason . Dublin is good , but everything sets up against him today . He doesn't have a chance . First of all , the race is one mile and starts at the 16th pole . It also ends at the 16th pole . That means a short stretch from the far turn . There will be pace today with Dryfly and Conveyance. Fast quarters don't add up for your mount especially with a second rate jockey in the irons . This race has brought out the big boys and Terry Thompson is not up to the task .
Dublin has not raced since November and he threw in a clunker . He had surgery to clear out a throat obstruction and sorry I just can't bet on a horse that " May " be okay . Not saying the horse isn't good , but this is a race to watch . Dublin needs graded stakes dollars to get into the Kentucky Derby and I think Dewayne Lukas is desperate . So all lights are green and it's the same as a crap shoot in Vegas to see if this horse runs .
Oh yeah , you should know this , since 2005 pole position number 10 has been a black hole for horses starting in that position . No stakes race has ever been won from that position and in all races , including all horses , pole position number 10 is batting around 8 percent winners .



Okay , this is how it sets up . Conveyance and Dryfly will have the lead at the 3/4 quarter pole . Cardiff Giant and Domonation will start gearing up to pass the leaders if the pace has been suicidal and I think it will . Mission Impazible will take the lead as they come around the far turn . Conveyance will fade out of contention . Dryfly will level out but still have a chance.

In the end it will be Domonation , Cardiff Giant , Mission Impazible . For those who want Pleasant Storm beware . He has no early speed and may be out of it from the get go .

Hey JJ! Good to see you! We've been wondering where you were!

hey jimsjam good to see ya im not a dublin guy either but i think conveyance has this race easy imo

Born ,


You may be right , but I'm guessing he will not win . First time on dirt . First time away from home cooking . This horse needs the lead to win and I'm sure he'll go out ablazin for the lead , but unlike other races , he will get challenged up front and will not have an easy lead with no pressure . Dryfly and Calvin Borel have the same idea about the lead and they want it . The other horse that wants the lead is Cool Bullet . In a one mile race the horse that usually goes to the front and is not pressured can make the race a sprint in the last quarter . That's how Conveyance has been winning . NOT THIS TIME !

I give the nod to Dryfly over Conveyance because of Calvin Borel . He makes his living on this track and knows it's nuances . Conveyance has not met with constant pressure in any race , but whoa nelly , he will this time . The pace will be suicidal and that's why I'm looking at several good closers to end up with the blanket of roses.

Look for a 22 4/5ths first quarter ....Conveyance , Dryfly.... Cool Bullet

It's gonna be hot to the 1/2 mile pole ..45 flat...Conveyance..Dryfly...Mission Impazible

Now the race begins .....3/4 pole time 1:09 ...Conveyance... Dryfly....Mission Impazible

As they come into the short stretch Conveyance fades and drops out . Dryfly goes on , but is passed by Mission Impazible

Cardiff Giant and Domonation now apply the jets from mid pack ( 4 lengths back )

conveyance breaks sharply suprises jimsjam but allowing 2 other horses to go into the sucide mission as he tucks in closley behind and rates beautifully the top of the stretch the 2 fall off and conveyance smiles and pricks his ears forward for a 3 length victory

whoo hoo